Monmouth Park – Saturday 12 May 2018

BetwithEl Part 2 PREMIUM for Saturday, 12 May 2018.

Race Description: Monmouth Park, Race 11, The Serena’s Song Stakes for fillies and mares, three years old and upward, contested at 1 mile 70 yards on the dirt, with a purse of $60,000.

El’s Analysis:

Berned (#8) – This 4 year old filly by Bernardini raced twice and showed once for a purse earnings of $31,500 and a high Beyer rating of only 76 this year.   However, she raced 6 times and won twice for a purse earnings of $122,836 and a high Beyer rating of 93 last year. She has been racing at the graded stakes level last year and was turned out after her last race on 11 November 2017. She returned to the work tab on 3 February 2018 and raced twice at the G2 and G3 stakes level. She will be dropping in class for today’s race and should be able to improve on her last race. Berned is being trained by Motion H Graham, who has a 14% win rate, and will have a change in riders in Bravo J, who has a 22% win rate. With a good start out of the gate, we expect Berned to show her closing kick in the stretch to take the win.

Christmas Sky (#4) – This 4 year old filly by Bodemeister raced 4 times and hit the board 4 times, winning 3 times and placing once, for a purse earnings of $132,200 and a high Beyer rating of 84 this year. She ran mostly at the 7 furlongs and 1 mile distance, so she will be stretching out for today’s race. She was a $35,000 claimer on 10 December 2017 and has been steadily moving up in class, running at the $50,000 allowance and most recently running in a $76,000 stakes race at Aqueduct. She won that race running wire-to-wire and winning by 1 1/2 lengths. She only earned a 74 Beyer rating for that race, which was run at 7 furlongs distance.   Christmas Sky is being trained by Diodoro Robertino, who has a 24% win rate. The question will be whether she will be able to run wire-to-wire at a longer distance. This filly hit the board 8 out of 8 life-time starts and we believe that with a good start out of the gate, she will try running the race wire-to-wire and possibly fade to place in the stretch with this longer race.

In the Navy Now (#2) – This 5 year old mare by Midshipman raced 5 times and hit the board 4 times, winning twice, and showing twice for a purse earnings of $105,450 and a high Beyer rating of 83 this year. She earned the 83 Beyer rating in her last race, which was a $100,000 stakes race run at the 7 furlongs distance at Charles Town. In the Navy Now shows 20 life time starts, hitting the board 17 times for a life-time purse earnings of $244,020 and a high Beyer rating of 83. This mare may be a late maturing mare, just earning her high Beyer rating in her last race. She is being trained by Trombetta Michael, who has a 14% win rate and will have jockey Pimental J, who has a 22% win rate, in the irons for today’s race. This mare seems to run from off the pace and can show a nice closing kick. With another improvement in Beyer rating, and the slight drop in class, we expect this mare to be able to hit the board.

El’s order of finish:

  1. Berned (#8)
  2. Christmas Sky (#4)
  3. In the Navy Now (#2) 

El’s wagering strategy:

Berned (#8) to win

Exacta box 8/4/2/9 (Berned/Christmas Sky/In the Navy Now/Miss Inclusive)