Los Alamitos Race Course – Saturday 14 July 2018

BetwithElPart 2 PREMIUM for Saturday, 14 July 2018.Race Description: Los Alamitos Race Course, Race 5, $40,000 Optional Claimer for fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won $10,000 once other than maiden, claiming or starter or which have never won two races or claiming price $40,000, contested at 6 furlongs on the dirt, with a Purse of $40,000.

El’s Analysis:

Hot Autumn (#1) – This 3 year old filly by Tiz Wonderful raced 4 times and hit the board 3 times, winning once, placing once, and showing once, for a purse earnings of $53,025 and a high Beyer rating of 82 this year. She did not race as a 2 year old and started her racing career in March of this year. Hot Autumn broke her maiden in her last race, a $60,000 Maiden Special Weight race which she won by 3 1/4 lengths and earned the 82 Beyer rating with jockey Franco G in the irons. Hot Autumn is being trained by Kruljak Ian, who has a 12% win rate and will have a change in jockeys in Hernandez E, who has a 13% win rate. This filly looks to be an improving filly. She shows a nice 4 furlongs bullet work in 45.4 on 7 July and may very well improve on her 82 Beyer rating in today’s race. We expect this filly to stay close to the pace to take the win in the stretch.

Love a Honeybadger (#2) – This 4 year old filly by Bushwacker raced 5 times and hit the board 4 times, winning three times and showing once, for a purse earnings of $110,140 and a high Beyer rating of 79 this year. This filly won her last three races, running wire-to-wire.   She was claimed in her last race for $40,000 and is currently in the barn of trainer Miller Peter, who has a 19% win rate. Although she hit the board 6 out of 8 times in her life-time racing career, she must have faced soft fields in her last three races, since her highest life-time Beyer rating is only 79.  Jockey Pereira T J, who has a 12% win rate, rode her the last three times, and will return in the irons for today’s race.   We expect this filly to take the lead and try running the race wire-to-wire to hit the board.

Alpenhorn (#5) – This 4 year old filly by Empire Way raced 3 times and hit the board once, winning once, for a purse earnings of $34,796 and a high Beyer rating of 77 last year. She has not raced this year.   She is returning from a lengthy layoff and started her official work tab on 28 May 2018 at Santa Anita. She is currently in the barn of trainer Eurton Peter, who has a 14% win rate.   As a 4 year old, she only shows 5 life-time starts, but hitting the board 3 times. Jockey Maldonado E, who has a 10% win rate rode her in 2017 twice, winning twice with her. Maldonado is returning for the mount for today’s race. With Maldonado back in the irons for today’s race and this race having a short field, we expect this filly to close in the stretch to hit the board.

El’s order of finish:

  1. Hot Autumn (#1)
  2. Love a Honeybadger (#2)
  3. Alpenhorn (#5) 

El’s wagering strategy:

Hot Autumn (#1) to win

Exacta box 1/2/5 (Hot Autumn/Love a Honeybadger/Alpenhorn)