Churchill Downs – Saturday 15 September 2018

BetwithEl Part 1 FREE for Saturday, 15 September 2018.

Race Description: Churchill Downs, Race 11, The Pocahontas, Grade II stakes race for fillies, two years old, contested at 1 1/16 mile on the dirt, with a Purse of $200,000.

El’s Analysis:

Serengeti Empress (#1) -This 2 year old filly by Alternation ran three times and hit the board twice, winning twice, for a purse earnings of $71,310 and a high Beyer rating of 84. She earned the 84 Beyer rating in her last race on 19 August at Ellis Park where she ran in a $75,000 stakes race and finished first by 13 1/2 lengths. She improved her Beyer rating from a 62 to an 84 Beyer rating and ran the race wire-to-wire. She is being trained by Amoss Thomas, who has a 27% win rate and jockey Lanerie C J, who has a 17% win rate, will return to ride her in today’s race.   She shows one easy 4 furlongs breeze on 5 September since her last race. With a good start out of the gate, and another improvement in her Beyer ratings, we expect this filly to take the win.

Taylor’s Spirit (#10) – This 2 year old filly by Algorithms ran three times and hit the board three times, winning all three times for a pure earnings of $93,400 and   a high Beyer rating of 71.   She earned the 71 Beyer rating in her first race, which was ran at 5 furlongs on the dirt at Prairie Meadows and at a $32,000 maiden special weight class level. She finished first by an impressive 13 3/4 lengths. Her last race came at Louisiana Downs at a mile distance but on the turf. She is switching back to dirt for today’s race and will go slightly longer at 1 1/16 mile.   Although she only earned a 67 Beyer rating for that race, she may very well return to her 71 Beyer rating or improve on that. Taylor’s Spirit is being trained by Gelner Scott, who has a 16% win rate and will have a change of riders in veteran Bridgmohan S, who has a 21% win rate.   This filly seems to be quite consistent, and with an improvement on her 71 Beyer rating, we expect she will hit the board.

Love My Honey (#2) – This 2 year old filly by Shackleford and a 2018 $155,000 Ocala Breeders’ Sale purchase, ran once and won by 1 1/4 lengths at first asking in a n $85,000 maiden special weight race at Saratoga on 29 July 2018.   She earned $46,750 in purse earnings and earned a 67 Beyer rating for that 6 furlongs race. She shows 5 works since that race with one 4 furlongs bullet work at Saratoga, where she ran the 4 furlongs in an impressive 46.4 sec finishing 1/53. This filly seems to have the speed and with Shackleford as her sire, she may have the stamina to go the distance as well. Love My Honey is being trained by Maker Michael J, who has a 16% win rate. She will have a change in jockeys in Leparoux J R. who has a 13% win rate. We expect her to stay close to the pace to show a closing kick in the stretch to hit the board.

El’s order of finish:

  1. Serengeti Empress (#1)
  2. Taylor’s Spirit (#10)
  3. Love My Honey (#2) 

El’s wagering strategy:

Serengeti Empress (#1) to win

Exacta box 1/10/2/12 (Serengeti Empress/Taylor’s Spirit/Love My Honey/Tapping Pearl)