Charles Town – Saturday 7 July 2018

BetwithEl Part 2 PREMIUM for Saturday, 7 July 2018.

Race Description: Charles Town, Race 2, Maiden Special Weight for accredited West Virginia-bred maidens, three years old and up, contested at 6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt, with a Purse of $23,000.

El’s Analysis:

Purgatory (#7) – This 3 year old gelding by Limehouse has raced twice and hit the board twice, placing once and showing once, for a purse earnings of $6840 and a high Beyer rating of 54 this year. Both races were run at the 4 1/2 furlongs distance, so he will be stretching out to the 6 1/2 furlongs for the first time. Purgatory is being trained by Dillow John, who has a 5% win rate.   Jockey Rodriquez V, who has a 6% win rate, rode this horse the last two times. Rodriquez will return as the rider for today’s race. Purgatory will be competitive in this soft and short field.   With a good start, we expect this horse to stay close to the pace and take the win in the stretch.

Carter’s Run (#3) – This 3 year old gelding by Munings raced once on 14 June and finished 6th by 8 lengths in a 4 1/2 furlongs maiden special weight race. He was fractious in the gate and we assume that he expended most of his energy in that gate. e did earn a 26 Beyer rating for finishing 6th, closing 3 lengths in the stretch. Carter’s Run is being trained by Grams Timothy, who has a 23% win rate and jockey Almodovar G., who has a 19% win rate will return for the mount. Carter’s Run shows one work at the 4 furlongs distance and will be stretching out to the 6 1/2 furlongs for today’s race.   With a better start out of the gate we expect this horse to stay close to the pace to hit the board and possibly take the win.

Rockaround (#4) – This 3 year old gelding by Bobalicious raced once on 15 June and finished 4th by 10 1/4 lengths in a 6 1/2 furlongs maiden special weight race.   He ran a pretty even race but faded in the stretch for his first race. Rockaround is being trained by Pickett Crystal, who has a 14% win rate and jockey Thorpe D, who has an 8% win rate, will be returning for the mount for today’s race.   We expect Rockaround to improve of his last race and having finished fourth last time, we expect this horse to at least hit the board.

El’s order of finish:

  1. Purgatory (#7)
  2. Carter’s Run (#3)
  3. Rockaround (#4)

El’s wagering strategy:

Purgatory (#7) to win

Exacta wheel top and bottom Purgatory (#7)