Charles Town – Saturday 10 March 2018

BetwithEl Part 1 FREE for Saturday, 10 March 2018.

Race Description: Charles Town, Race 5, $5,000 claimer, for four years old and up, which have not won a race since September 10, 2017, contested at 6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt, with a Purse of $10,000.

El’s Analysis:

Moments Notiz (#6) – This 10 year old gelding by big horse Tiznow raced 11 times and hit the board 8 times, winning twice, placing 5 times, and showing once for a purse earnings of $34,035 and a high Beyer rating of 82 last year. He ran once this year on 19 January at Charles Town, where he finished 2nd in a 7 furlongs $5,000 claimer. He earned a 66 Beyer rating for that race with apprentice jockey Rodriquez L J, who ha a 9% win rate in the irons. Moments Notiz is being trained by Runco Jeff, who has a 26% win rate. Moments Notiz shows a life-time starts of 58, hitting the board 44 times for a life-time earnings of $471,877 and a life-time high Beyer rating of 103. Being a Tiznow horse, this horse is tough at 10 years old, but clearly is starting to wind down running at the $5,000 claimer level. This horse comes from off the pace and shows a closing kick to take home a check each time he races. In today’s soft field, Moments Notiz with Rodriquez back in the saddle, we expect him to take the win in the stretch.

Sea of Roses (#7) – This 7 ear old gelding by Reparations ran 10 times and hit the board 6 times, winning 3 times, placing once, and showing 2 times for a purse earnings of $33,040 and a high Beyer rating of 64 last year. He shows 33 life-time starts, hitting the board 19 times for a life-time earnings of $150,345 and a life-time high Beyer rating of 75. He ran once this year on 16 February at Charles Town, where he finished 5th in a 7 furlongs $5,000 claimer and earned a 50 Beyer rating on a track that was rated muddy. Sea of Roses is being trained by Contreras Javier who has a 23% win rate, and will have his regular rider Marrero C, who has a 14% win rate, in the irons for today’s race. This horse does not seem to get out of the gate fast and positions himself somewhere in the middle of the pack to make up ground in the stretch.   With a good start out of the gate and better track conditions from the last time he ran, we expect this horse to improve on his last race and improve his Beyer ratings as well to finish on the board.

Citi’s Barometer (#10) – This 9 year old gelding by Changeintheweather ran 6 times and hit the board 4 times, winning twice, placing once, and showing once for a purse earnings of $20,418 and high Beyer rating of 64 last year. He shows 38 life-time starts, hitting the board 21 times for a life-time earnings of $164,797 and a life-time high Beyer rating of 88. He ran once this year on 12 January at Penn National, where he finished 4th by 16 3/4 lengths in a 1mile and 70 yards $4,000 claimer and earned a 28 Beyer rating on a track that was rated sloppy. He clearly did not like the slop nor did he like the distance. He will be going shorter today at 6 1/2 furlongs and the distance should be more to his liking. He will have a change of venue racing at Charles Town. Citi’s Barometer is being trained by Graci Kimberly, who has a 21% win rate. He will have a change of riders in Almodovar, who has a 18% win rate. This horse has shown in the past that he can win at this level, running wire-to-wire. With a good start out of the gate and better track conditions, we expect this horse to take the lead o try winning the race. We expect Citi’s Barometer to hit the board.

El’s order of finish:

  1. Moments Notiz (#6)
  2. Sea of Roses (#7)
  3. Citi’s Barometer (#10)

El’s wagering strategy:

Moments Notiz (#6) to win

Exacta wheel top and bottom Moments Notiz (#6)