Belmont Park – Saturday 9 June 2018

BetwithEl Part 2 PREMIUM for Saturday, 9 June 2018. 

Race Description: Belmont Park, Race 11, 150th Running of THE BELMONT, a G1 stakes race contested at 1 1/2 mile distance on the dirt for three year olds with a Purse of $1,500,000.

El’s Analysis:

Justify (#1) – This colt by Scat Daddy has not done anything wrong and has shown up each time he raced. Justify is a freak having broken his maiden at first asking by 9 1/2 lengths and earning a 104 Beyer rating. He has raced 5 times and won 5 times, including the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. Barring any difficulties coming out of the gate today, we believe that we will see another Triple Crown winner trained by no other than Hall-of-Fame trainer Bob Baffert. No other horse in today’s race shows the mettle this horse has. However, these are all three year olds in this race and at that age they are not fully matured. In other words, any of the other horses in this race may very well wake up and improve significantly over their last race. The weather should be better than on KY Derby and Preakness days, so that the Belmont track should be rated as fast. Jockey Mike Smith will be back in the irons for this race. Mike Smith has been in this position before and he is familiar with the long stretch of the Belmont track. We expect that Mike will be able to maneuver and rate his horse to hit the wire first to take the win and the Triple Crown.

Tenfold (#7) – This colt by Curlin has only raced 4 times and jumped from a $75,000 optional claimer straight into a G1 class race, the Arkansas Derby, where he finished 5th by 4 1/2 lengths. Tenfold then raced in the Preakness, another G1 race, where he finished 3rd by 3/4 lengths, showing a nice closing kick on a sloppy track. Tenfold improved his Beyer rating from 92 to 95 in that race.   Tenfold is being trained by Steve Asmussen, who trained Curlin, and who has a 21% win rate. Jockey Santana J Jr, who has a 21% win rate, rode him in the Preakness and will return to ride him in the Belmont.   Tenfold may have inherited Curlin’s stamina and should have no problem going the 1 1/2 mile. Tenfold will most likely go off at high odds, but with a good start out of the gate we expect this horse to stay closer to the pace this time. With the ability to show a strong closing kick we believe this colt has the ability to pass tiring horses in the stretch to hit the board.

Bravazo (#3) – This colt by Awesome Again raced 5 times and hit the board 3 times, winning twice and placing once for a purse earnings of $595,600 and a high Beyer rating of 96, which he earned in his last race, running in the Preakness and running second to Justify the winner. Bravazo improved his Beyer rating from 91 to 96 even those the track was sloppy. This colt has 10 life-time starts and hit the board 6 times. His trainer, Wayne Lukas, who has a 12% win rate, is no stranger to racing and winning at the highest levels. Jockey Saez L, who has a 20% win rate, rode this horse the last time out and will return for today’s race. Bravazo also has a nice closing kick and will no doubt stay close to the pace.   With another improvement in his Beyer rating, Bravazo will no doubt be able to hit the board again.

El’s order of finish:

  1. Justify (#1)
  2. Tenfold (#7)
  3. Bravazo (#3)

El’s wagering strategy:

Justify (#1) to win.

Exacta box 1/7/3/2 (Justify/Tenfold/Bravazo/Free Drop Billy)