Belmont Park – Saturday 20 October 2018

BetwithEl Part 2 PREMIUM for Saturday, 20 October 2018.

Race Description: Belmont Park, Race 9, THE EMPIRE DISTAFF HANDICAP for fillies and mares three years old and up foaled in New State, contested at 1 1/16 mile on the dirt, with a purse of $250,000.

El’s Analysis:

Frostie Anne (#6) – This 5 year old mare by Frost Giant raced 8 times and hit the board 8 times, winning 6 times, placing once, and showing once, for a purse earnings of $230,490 and a high Beyer rating of 84 this year. She ran her last race on 17 August 2018 at Saratoga at the 1 1/8 mile and finished first by 1/2 length, running the race in front running style with jockey Alvarado J in the irons. Since her last race she shows 6 official works with three bullet works. Her last work at the 5 furlongs was on 11 October. Although she is stepping up slightly in class, we like that she won her last 6 races. This is a mare that seems to like to win. She is being trained by Rodriquez Rudy R, who has an 18% win rate and jockey Alvarado, who has a 19% win rate, and who has ridden her six out of the eight times that she ran in 2018 will return to ride her for today’s race. With a good start out of the gate we expect her to run close to the pace if not take the lead and take the win.

Hay Field (#4) – This 5 year old mare by Haynesfield has run 8 times and hit the board 7 times, winning 5 times and placing twice, for a purse earnings of $229,600 and a high Beyer rating of 84 this year. This mare has run mostly in sprint races and is stretching out for today’s race. She seems to come out of the gate somewhat slowly, which is OK in this longer race, because in her previous races she has shown a nice closing kick in the stretch. She is being trained by Englehart Jeremiah C, who has a 24% win rate and she will have jockey Bravo J, who has a 20% win rate in the irons for today’s race. Bravo has ridden this mare to a win in her last three races, and should be able to pace her to hit the board.

Tiznow’s Smile (#8) – This 4 year old filly by Tiznow has run 6 times and hit the board 3 times, winning twice and showing once for a purse earnings of $100,748 and a high Beyer rating of 86 this year. She earned the 86 Beyer rating in her last race which was run at Belmont at the 7 furlongs distance. This filly is stepping up in class for today’s race, but we like that she has been steadily improving her Beyer ratings. She shows 3 official works with one bullet work since her last race that she won by 3 1/4 lengths. She is being trained by Baker Charlton, who has a 17% win rate and will have jockey Rosario J, who has a 17% win rate, in the irons for today’s race. Rosario rode her on 8 August at Saratoga, winning the race by a neck and showing a nice closing kick. Although she is stepping up in class and stretching out as well, with a good start and another improvement in her Beyer ratings, we believe that she will be able to hit the board at decent odds.

El’s order of finish:

  1. Frostie Anne (#6)
  2. Hay Field (#4)
  3. Tiznow’s Smile (#8)

El’s wagering strategy:

Frostie Anne (#6) to win

Exacta box 6/4/8/9 (Frostie Anne/Hay Field/Tiznow’s Smile/Split Time)