Arlington Park – Saturday 11 August 2018

BetwithEl Part 2 PREMIUM for Saturday, 11 August 2018.

Race Description: Arlington Park, Race 11, THE ARLINGTON MILLION XXXVI, Grade 1 stakes race, contested at 1 1/4 mile on the turf for three year olds and up with a Purse of $1,000,000.

El’s Analysis:

Spring Quality (#2) – This 6 year old gelding by Quality Road ran twice and hit the board twice, winning once and placing once for a purse earnings of $565,000 and a high Beyer rating of 102, that he earned in his last race, the Manhattan G1 stakes race, run at Belmont this year. He came back after a layoff on 5 May 2018 and came in 2nd with jockey Prado E S in the irons and earning a 100 Beyer rating, finishing second in a G3 stakes race. Both of his last two races were run on the turf, which seems to be much to his liking.   Spring Quality is being trained by Motion H Graham, who has a 15% win rate.   Veteran jockey Prado E S, who has a 14% win rate, will be in the irons for today’s race. Spring Quality is a versatile horse who can run either close to the pace or can stay closer to the back with a nice closing kick in the stretch. We believe that this horse has come back to form to take the win in the stretch.

Money Multiplier (#8) – This 6 year old horse by Lookin at Lucky ran four times and hit the board three times, winning once, placing once, and showing once, for a purse earnings of $293,000 and a high Beyer rating of 103 this year. He ran the 103 Beyer ratings in both his last two races, which were at the G2 and G1 stakes level at Monmouth with jockey Joe Bravo in the irons. Money Multiplier is being trained by Brown Chad who has an impressive 28% win rate and will have veteran jockey Velazquez J R in the irons for today’s race. This horse shows a life-time earnings of $1,263,584 and a life-time high Beyer rating of 109. Money Multiplier will have a new jockey in Velazquez, who has a 21% win rate. This horse can stay close to the pace or can come from behind. Not having won G1 stakes races at Saratoga in the past, we expect this horse to hit the board, but placing him behind Spring Quality.

Oscar Performance (#11) – This 4 year old colt by Kitten’s Joy ran once and won once for a purse earnings of $180,000 and a high Beyer rating of 104 this year.   He won this race on 17 June 2018 in a 1 mile turf race at Belmont in a G3 rated stakes race, a race that may have been a prep race for today’s race. Although he ran an impressive 104 Beyer rating after a lengthy layoff, he will be back in G1 stakes race company. He is certainly capable to win G1 stakes races as he has shown last year with jockey Ortiz J L, who has an 18% win rate, in the irons. Ortiz is this colt’s regular rider and will be staying with him for today’s race. Oscar Performance is being trained by Lynch Brian, who has a 16% win rate. This relatively young 4 year old colt shows 12 life-time starts, winning 7 times and showing once, for a life-time earnings of $1,967,632 and a life-time high Beyer rating of 104. With that racing resume, he is certainly in form to hit the board, if not take the win.

El’s order of finish:

  1. Spring Quality (#2)
  2. Money Multiplier (#8)
  3. Oscar Performance (#11)

El’s wagering strategy:

Spring Quality (#2) to win

Exacta box 2/8/11/3 (Spring Quality/Money Multiplier/Oscar Performance/Amanaar)